Post by flynhome on Dec 26, 2012 12:57:35 GMT -8
This posted on rivals.com college baseball forum.
Let's Talk About Some Real Dark Horses for 2013 Reply
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It's easy to pick the perennial winners, but the showing of a true handicapper (of which I'm not) is to find that team which makes good when not expected. IF, a certain series of odd injuries have healed four talented pitchers, I think my 2013 dark horse to make the postseason is Cal State Bakersfield. But...
With two front-line and healthy solid starters back (Jeff McKenzie, 6-5 2.67/.259 OBA, and Scott Brattvet, 6-5 4.75/.293) a good starting nucleus begins to form. Now come the "Buts". A strange series of throwing arm injuries have either limited or side-lined four very talented pitchers. Taylor Aikenhead was 6-3, 3.20 ERA (ten starts) in 2012 before being closed-down with a sore elbow. Jonathan Montoya sat out 2012 with TJ surgery; but in 2011, he lead the team with seven complete games and was 8-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 115 IPs. Then Chuck Buchanan was closed down after only four games in 2012 at that time he was 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA, and Brandon Van Dam was off to an impressive 2011 (3-0, 1.90 ERA), but was closed down after four starts, and then sat out all of 2012. That's four very bright pitching prospects injured and apparently returning healthy in 2013 to add with ace McKenzie and Brattvet as well as Hayden Carter.
Despite all of those key pitching injuries, Coach Bill Kernen was still able to go 25-30, and they were in most of the games they lost (losing 16 games by three runs or less). Their team pitching stats in light of this devastating depletion of starters still posted a 4.05 ERA with a respectable .279 OBA. IF, and that's a big "IF", those four come back, they could have one of the best staffs in the WAC for their inaugural season in 2013. This depth, IF these kids are healthy, could erase the reason why the Roadrunners were a sub-five hundred team as they lost the great majority of their close games (and games overall) from the seventh inning and beyond. If these kids are healthy, that additional pitching talent and depth could easily present a 35-plus win team.
I really like their returning players on offense. They have a lot of steady "Joes" that have shown improvement as they have matured. They return six of their top eight hitters along with their best hitter Oscar Sanay. I really like Carl Brockmeyer who hit .285 in 2012 as he hits for power (6 HRs 32 RBIs) and he is an excellent defensive catcher and first baseman. He also played well at the Cape last summer. The one question-mark with somewhat of a positive showing in 2012 was sophomore Jordie Hein who hit only .228. But, he led the team in OBA and set a school record for being able to draw 36 walks. That's remarkable for a freshman. He struck out 42 times, but that means he is seeing a lot of pitches at the top of the line-up, and that was only his freshman year. He looks like the perfect top of the line up guy IF he can add 40-60 points to his average. An OBA as a freshman of .388 is a strong positive glimpse as to how good this kid can become in the one spot. It looks like their offensive role-players are positioned nicely for a good 2013 season.
Several of the good hitters returning are on the underclassman side so things look pretty good for the Roadrunners in the near future. They averaged almost five runs per game last year and I think with beginning play in the WAC they'll improve on that run-production figure with the key difference-maker in whether they truly become a REAL dark horse being their pitching in 2013. If those starters come back healthy, they could finish in the top two/three in the WAC.
I'm not sure about the Roadrunner newcomers, but Coach Kernen knows pitchers and pitching and where to get the talent and has a penchant for finding excellent JC transfer talent for the bump.
What are some other dark horses? I mean REAL dark horses.
Let's Talk About Some Real Dark Horses for 2013 Reply
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's easy to pick the perennial winners, but the showing of a true handicapper (of which I'm not) is to find that team which makes good when not expected. IF, a certain series of odd injuries have healed four talented pitchers, I think my 2013 dark horse to make the postseason is Cal State Bakersfield. But...
With two front-line and healthy solid starters back (Jeff McKenzie, 6-5 2.67/.259 OBA, and Scott Brattvet, 6-5 4.75/.293) a good starting nucleus begins to form. Now come the "Buts". A strange series of throwing arm injuries have either limited or side-lined four very talented pitchers. Taylor Aikenhead was 6-3, 3.20 ERA (ten starts) in 2012 before being closed-down with a sore elbow. Jonathan Montoya sat out 2012 with TJ surgery; but in 2011, he lead the team with seven complete games and was 8-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 115 IPs. Then Chuck Buchanan was closed down after only four games in 2012 at that time he was 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA, and Brandon Van Dam was off to an impressive 2011 (3-0, 1.90 ERA), but was closed down after four starts, and then sat out all of 2012. That's four very bright pitching prospects injured and apparently returning healthy in 2013 to add with ace McKenzie and Brattvet as well as Hayden Carter.
Despite all of those key pitching injuries, Coach Bill Kernen was still able to go 25-30, and they were in most of the games they lost (losing 16 games by three runs or less). Their team pitching stats in light of this devastating depletion of starters still posted a 4.05 ERA with a respectable .279 OBA. IF, and that's a big "IF", those four come back, they could have one of the best staffs in the WAC for their inaugural season in 2013. This depth, IF these kids are healthy, could erase the reason why the Roadrunners were a sub-five hundred team as they lost the great majority of their close games (and games overall) from the seventh inning and beyond. If these kids are healthy, that additional pitching talent and depth could easily present a 35-plus win team.
I really like their returning players on offense. They have a lot of steady "Joes" that have shown improvement as they have matured. They return six of their top eight hitters along with their best hitter Oscar Sanay. I really like Carl Brockmeyer who hit .285 in 2012 as he hits for power (6 HRs 32 RBIs) and he is an excellent defensive catcher and first baseman. He also played well at the Cape last summer. The one question-mark with somewhat of a positive showing in 2012 was sophomore Jordie Hein who hit only .228. But, he led the team in OBA and set a school record for being able to draw 36 walks. That's remarkable for a freshman. He struck out 42 times, but that means he is seeing a lot of pitches at the top of the line-up, and that was only his freshman year. He looks like the perfect top of the line up guy IF he can add 40-60 points to his average. An OBA as a freshman of .388 is a strong positive glimpse as to how good this kid can become in the one spot. It looks like their offensive role-players are positioned nicely for a good 2013 season.
Several of the good hitters returning are on the underclassman side so things look pretty good for the Roadrunners in the near future. They averaged almost five runs per game last year and I think with beginning play in the WAC they'll improve on that run-production figure with the key difference-maker in whether they truly become a REAL dark horse being their pitching in 2013. If those starters come back healthy, they could finish in the top two/three in the WAC.
I'm not sure about the Roadrunner newcomers, but Coach Kernen knows pitchers and pitching and where to get the talent and has a penchant for finding excellent JC transfer talent for the bump.
What are some other dark horses? I mean REAL dark horses.
